Danger

Image depicts a 300 metre sea levels rise, a level that can be reach if the ice caps melt

Rising Sea Levels

Hi Guys

I have been think lately, futher to a conversation with an friend of mine the impact that the rising sea level will have on the future genrations.

As a reasearch topic we are focusing on three main outcomes of the rising sea level in the future. Ofcourse these are all speculative, but they really do get the mind thinking of the "what if factor".

1. unexpected natural disater 

What if we were to wake up on a normal day in the week and be faced with a catastrophic disater with the likes no one has ever seen. Rising sea level which are rising at 10 cemetres every hour.

Lised below would be some of the major issues which at the moment no such structure has been put in place, how will these issues be address?

-emergancy evacuation procudure

-saving iconic buildings

-social impact and migration

-physical transformation of the city

                                                                       

2. Gradual rise in sea levels    

We know for a fact that the sea is rising every day, albeit on a very small scale (1cm over a couple years). But what we also know is that the rise is expenetial. What we dont know is the direction on the curve in the diagram. It could shoot up on a very steep inclination for all that we know. Again below is some areas we will like to look into.                                                    

-technologies and systems put in place

-gradual build up of infrastucture in another location and social impacts of this, ie social classes who will have better previliages etc.

-while sea levels rise is there any long term plan to try to decrease it? even though it is increasing?

                                                                   

3. adapt to the rise

Could sydney be a another Venice. Yes we know that the scale of the two cities are dramatically diffrent but what about socially, are sydney siders ready to packand leave or make due of what has confronted them?                                          

 -benifits and deteriments of this organism working?

 -social impact ?

I am curious to read other responses in relation to this topic. Do you think that the social impacts will undermine the physical transformation?

Early thinking

You have brought forward many intresting topics and concerns which will inevitably face in the future both as professionals and citizens.

Yes we did come up with an intresting device (kinetic charged generator battery), which co-insides with my futurologist Richard Register’s hopes and dreams and predictions. Just to give you a quick insite here is a quick snipet from an interview Richard was in. “An ecocity is an ecologically healhy city. That also means the city design is strongly informed by knowledge of ecology and its design principles. The (anatomy analogy) in very instructional in the enterprise of trying to build ecologically healthy cities. As in living organisms with different functions arraged close to one another in an appropriate spatial relationship, so too for cities.
Although I am an avid supporter of Richards optimism, and the utopian scenario you described on your first post “This will have a great…..English speaking Australians”, I wouldn’t hold my breath. I personally believe that the imdeiate future is bleak and only through social/cultural and economic hardships will the authorities step back and actually plan and set out blueprints for a green city. 
Yes, we are becoming more aware of depleting natural resources, but do you see any drastic changes?
The Sydney City 2030 plan will not be dominated by a new breed of Tree-hugging developers nor a single device that will alter the course of the city into a special mould. What I do see is a driving technology that will change the way in which we as humans will behave, both socially, culturally and spiritually. This phenomemun is the WIRELESS technology.

Face value, wireless technology seems very convientient and essential to the modern savy. Come 2030 inevitably most of the population will be connected by wireless. How is this significant? Well think about it, the economy will definitely benefit short term, but long term what will be the social and cultural implications? Below is a small extract by Geoffrey Bowker of Santa Clara University
“The eroding distinction between work and play is one of the many paradoxes at the heart of our increasingly wireless world. This is always the case with new technology. Often the effects are paradoxical. The overall upside is that we can maintain a rich social and cultural life while dashing from pillar to post. The overall downside is that our spiritual development-which requires empty time, contemplation-is suffering enormously.
Security willa also become a major factor in future plans. Mobile tracking will be unparralled, connecting and tracking people at an ease of a button. Behavioural patterns of the citizens will change as well as there lifestyle in extreme cases. Dividing the line between work and play will be a major issue, certain controls need to be implemented on a personal level.

In regards to present futureologist and there predictions, below is a link from a futureologist in the 60's predicting the year 2000. I found it very amusing.

Directional Conditioning in the City

The city is a large space, with many different functions and programs and environments. Navigating your way through a city can therefore be a pretty daunting task. No you say? That is because you are probably considerably familiar with your local city so that finding direction and purpose throughout the city becomes an effortless process. This is indeed the case for me. I enjoy the comfort and confidence to go where I like, when I like and the sound knowledge I have of my city (Sydney) allows a broader theoretical city, increasing my potential destinations and thoroughfares. This means that a city can only be as big as an individual's knowledge. How can a person decide on a destination that they never knew existed? Therefore, providing direction and purpose for aliens (and I mean people who are new to the space, not the inter-stellar kind!) in a city should be of extreme importance, especially for future cities, considering that cities are constantly growing in size. As cities get larger, it will become increasingly difficult for a person to navigate through the spaces of the city in a random manner. Currently, navigation through our cities is controlled by the tourism industry. This means a person is being told how to experience an urban landscape from a political and marketing perspective. This particular problem should be addressed for future cities. Who better to help a tourist experience a city than the creative minds that helped create it? Also, with a strong founded knowledge of urban experiences and social interactions as a result of these, architects and planners are in the best position to help a tourist experience the urban fabric granting the city its culture.

This observation came about as I stood in the middle of the city deciding on a destination to which I can digitally track. Digitally tracking was the easy part, however deciding on an un-purposed destination and than deciding on the direction was extremely difficult. How can we, as city designers, determine the direction of the people? How can we have ignored such a great potential and extremely powerful factor in the design of cities? Eventually I decided to follow the strongest directional influence in my scope of vision...the Monorail. Those of you who don’t know the monorail, it’s a bullet looking train which runs along a single track about twelve meters above the city floor. It looks very interesting and exciting and has potential to be a great means of transportation. However, it is a greatly wasted potential. It runs in a small and uneventful circle around a small portion of the city, only attracting a small portion of tourists. This means that my journey following the monorail was relatively uneventful and unexciting. However it wasn’t the destination that attracted me to follow the monorail, but rather the definitive and obvious single track which runs unobstructed through the city.

The initial purpose of the exercise was to determine the quality of digital devices in tracking an individual throughout the city and than determining resulting social repercussions. However, I feel a more important lesson has evolved from that, in that future cities have great potential to physically direct people to desired destinations and experiences which are true representations of the city culture.

Accidental Public Space

Since we have become so engaged with the topic of movement and congestion within a city, I decided to undertake some research regarding the subconscious understanding of movement understood by all people using the city space. Therefore, I went for a stroll through the city in an attempt to make an observation about the way people move and interact without realising that they are actually doing it. As I strolled, it seemed as though there was no un-ordinary activity, no unpredictable results. Than an epiphany hit me (at the same time a rogue bus almost did as well). The reason I couldn’t make observations regarding people’s movement was because I was unknowingly doing the same thing as everyone else and therefore couldn’t recognise it. The mutually accepted norm amongst pedestrians in the city is that a person will walk at a constant pace in a direct motion, more often with a solemn, silent look on their face. I couldn’t observe this fact because I was doing the exact same thing, along with the other 90% of pedestrians. It occurred to me that the abnormal activity regarding movement amongst pedestrians in the city was either people who were running or people who were at a complete stop. I therefore decided to record where these events occur throughout the city.

As inconspicuous as I could, I took photos of people where they were sitting or standing still. It became quickly apparent that people stood still very frequently at traffic lights which seemed quite ordinary. Though it brought to light the overwhelming hierarchy between vehicles and people and the vastly overpowering nature that vehicles have in the city, despite the way it may appear.

However, the more interesting observation was that regarding where people decided to claim seemingly unclaimed space as their own. As I walked taking photos, I noticed that some people had discovered little niche's and gaps in the city fabric where they could make their own refuge. An unused doorway had become one man's oasis in the midst of the harsh, stressful and congestive nature of the city. Though there were specified places throughout the city where planners and architects had undoubtedly planned for people to take refuge, these were definitely not sufficient and so, people had sub-consciously taken matters into their own hands and accidentally discovered their own public space. A testament to the evolving and organic nature of the city!

Unsuspecting and redundant spaces where a person could sit and avoid the mindless stroll of the conforming masses were transformed into either a personal sanctuary (like a library) or social gathering place (like a cafe). It seems that the unprecedented programming of these spaces is their main appeal. The fact that they were not designed by the all powerful and governing city to be public places was the main encouragement for their use. People could feel an empowering sense of sub-conscious rebellion against the authorities of the city in a mutually accepted manner.

Recesses between two neighbouring buildings, steps in front of forecourts, spaces in between programs, niches in building walls, unused shop fronts and window sills, unsuspecting sculptures, all had been allocated an unforeseen program.

I also noticed that, If the space was big enough (the infamous Australian 2 m2 personal space rule), than there would always be more than one person. Different places had different popularity, resulting in a different impact on the local environment. If the space was very popular (such as in front of the George St. Cinemas), people would walk around and alter their route to avoid those standing still, suggesting a power hierarchy. If the space was unpopular (such as a small unused doorway), people would stroll by, clearly unaffected and undeterred whatsoever. This gives the spaces an unexpected power over planned public places, through your actions in these spaces, you can choose whether to be noticed or not. In planned public places you will continually go unnoticed, as everyone is expecting you to be there, engaging in some sort of leisure activity. In the accidental public spaces, you can create your own program, either engaging the rest of the city or divorcing from it completely. This also provides a great appeal and explains why some people have the need to discover such places.

It would be untrue to claim that these accidental public spaces are more popular than the planned spaces. This is indeed the opposite. People seem to vastly prefer the planned public spaces. I can not claim that these spaces will take over the planned public spaces in popularity, but rather, they have evolved into nodes between transportation hubs. They are stopping stations between destinations.

It seems that the accidental public spaces work very well and have some great advantages over planned public spaces. Could there be some relevance in planning for better accidental public spaces? Or does will we constantly rely on the city's evolution of necessity? Is it possible to plan a successful accidental public space?

'Civilisation - Altering' Device

We have established the fact that technology is becoming an increasing influence on the evolution of the urban landscape. Therefore, i delved deep into some research regarding new and upcoming technologies in order to find some inspirational, social redirecting, civilisation altering, ingenious device. Little did i know, however, that apparently the rest of the world is doing the same, and the internet is littered with device promotional websites.

Though there were so many magnificent and ingenious devices, i failed to be inspired by a device which i felt confident would be adopted extensively in the future. However, there seemed to be a reccuring theme amongst most of the devices and that was, alternative energy. Most devices were being powered by kinetic energy. After a constructive discussion with some collegues, we predicted our own device. A kinetic energy generator battery. the battery/generator will be very small (as i have seen in my research) and will be a 'one size fits all' battery replacement for all popular personal gadgets such as the mobile phone or mp3 player, and even common household devices such as the torch, fans, speakers...etc. The generator charges by movement and so can be charged whilst you walk, jog, excercise or possibly doing household chores. In this way, it promotes a very active lifestyle which will be its greatest appeal considering society's steep downward spiral toward obesity.

This generator will save a lot of needlessly wasted energy. household appliances which stay plugged into the electricity sockets and especially conventional battery charges, consume a tremendous amount of energy just by being powered, regardless of whether they are actually being used or not. It will also give people a reason to become active other than health and will probably be more effective because results will show in minutes rather than months. This will have a significant effect on the current social and cultural conditions of the city which, in turn, which result in formal transformations.

The initial and greatest benefit will be the large amount of power conservation which will occur, with people not only powering their devices with renewable energy, but easing society's complete reluctance to avoid the motor vehicle. This will have a great economical effect on the authorities as well as the individual. The economical benefit will become the greatest consumer appeal. With so many people deciding to charge their kinetic generator, and become healthy and fit in the meantime, the amount of people using the city for walks and exercise will vastly increase, resulting in a need for pedestrian priority over vehicle. Therefore footpaths will widen, and cars will require zebra crossings in order to stop the people and safely cross their ranks. Also, bicycles will increase in (its already increasing) popularity and therefore much more provisions for bicycles, such as racks and parking stations, will be required. The existing green spaces (Hyde, Cook and Phillip, The Domain) will become popular social gathering spots. People in medium/high density residential buildings will be required to walk their generators and so, in the most progressive new cultural development in Australia since the invention of the Hills Hoist, a buildings common areas will become an effective meeting place where people will actually meet and converse with their neighbours..... which could possibly lead to a general alleviation of fear of non- english speaking Australians (theres the politics!).

And so, society adopts and adapts to a social, cultural, economical and political change as a result of a simple device.

Futurologists Vs Planners

After some research into a Futurologist named Ian Pearson, some rather significant differences arose between his forecasts and the Sydney City 2030 plan.

Ian Pearson's city prediction brings into light some critical flaws inherent in the sustainable Sydney 2030 project. The initial and most extreme flaw is the blatant disregard for the importance of cyberspace. The Sydney 2030 vision pays very little attention to the huge influence that cyberspace is having over global cities. No provisions have been accounted for in regard to this. It is becoming increasingly apparent that public space and cyberspace are becoming intertwined. Physical social meeting places as well as essential services such as food and grocery outlets, are increasingly being represented in cyberspace. This is a significant technological development which, according to the quote in my last post, should have a considerable impact on civilisation.

Also, another flaw pointed out by Pearson, is the planners’ dependence on the existing public transport infrastructure. The Sydney 2030 vision clearly depends on an upgrade of public transport in order to make the city more accessible and vehicle free. However, as pointed out by Pearson, the inherent problems of the public transport system, which prevent its use by most people today, are not being addressed. People avoid using buses because they usually avoid direct routes, requiring a long time to get to a destination. They are also unreliable and unpredictable. A new system is required where people get to where they want to go quick and easy. A system where there are arterial bus routes which travel direct to hubs are serviced by smaller, frequent buses which have a much smaller route and can pick up passengers much closer to their home. This can result in a much more reliable and useful bus infrastructure which will encourage its use.

There are also some issues raised by Pearson which coincide with the Sydney 2030 vision. Most prominent is his prediction regarding the increased use of surveillance to monitor the population and relay useful information to the local authorities, primarily to increase safety. Though the Sydney 2030 plan doesn’t go as far as to claim it will have facial recognition systems in place.

Future Of the City (intro)

The 'Sydney 2030 sustainable Plan' has given rise to renewed vigor regarding the debate over the future of the urban landscape. Architects and planners alike have dedicated their expertise and knowledge in the hope of not only determining the factors which create a self-sustainable cultural, social and economic utopia, but establishing some specific guidelines with which to achieve them.

I’m not going to go into detail about Sydney's 2030 vision, nor am I going to dwell on the specific convictions of different planners or architects, rather I will talk about the process inherent in planning for the future, in the hope of provoking further assumptions and assessment. Sydney's sustainable vision carries with it an enormous responsibility to the rest of the country. Being the country's largest and most populous city, it will be used as a model for future urban development.

Planning for the future of an urban space encompasses a rather large and problematic initial contradiction. In order to plan a successful future, we require the ability to foresee certain aspects of the current conditions of the city. This reveals a significant catch-22. Planning in order to direct and control the future requires a certain amount of knowledge and foresight regarding its uncontrolled direction. This brings to light the study of futurology. Futurology involves attempting to forecast alternative futures using research and insight. Futurologists monitor and map progress of new developments in certain fields and establish their social and technological implications. In our times it is much easier to establish realistic and credible foresight regarding proper urban principles. This is largely due to the fact that we are not required to delve too deep into the future (as the 2030 plan suggests, we are only 22 years away), transforming dystopic urban landscapes, such as those set in Blade Runner (set in the year 2019) from science fiction into fantasy. Another contributing factor is that of hindsight (and complacency) which has allowed architects and planners to watch the evolution of the city and recognise its true potentials and drawbacks rendering urban utopias such as Frank Lloyd Wright's 'Broadacre City' invalid.

In the last century the city has been left largely uncontrolled and has evolved into an entity which has, in the past, had the potential to recognise and than supply itself with the required social, cultural, economical and political sustenance. However, this spontaneous evolution is becoming increasingly difficult, and nearly impossible, as cities exponentially increase in density and size. The greatest new effect on the evolution of the city is technology, with the greatest of these technologies being the internet. The newest addition to city space is the realm of cyberspace. Physical places in the city are being represented digitally on the internet, having a profound effect on the development of the city. The natural process of the city's evolution has always entailed a response to new technologies. However, it can be assumed that humankind's recent technological leap is without precedent, and that the fundamental conditions of modern technology have given rise to, and still determine, all aspects of contemporary civilisation (Francastel, Versitility of The Object).

In light of this statement, and with the requirement to predict future conditions of the urban landscape, a simple exercise of determining the effects a piece of technology (whether significant or banal) will have on the city, can play an important role in forecasting urban projections.